3 Probability Distribution Frequency for Projects
Probability Distribution Frequency is the scattering of the values assigned to the likelihood of events in a simple population. It can be visually depicted in the form of a Probability Distribution Function.
In a PDF, the vertical axis refers to the probability of the risk event and the horizontal axis refers to the impact that the risk event will have on the project objectives.
Subjective and Objective Probability
Probability can be assigned subjectively or objectively. Subjective Probability is based on people’s opinions which may be shaped by information, experience, and attitude. Even if they are given the same set of facts, may make very different determinations of the probability of an event. Objective probability is deduced mathematically.
#1 UNIFORM DISTRIBUTION PDF
A Uniform Distribution Frequency results when all outcomes are equally likely to occur so that the data is shown in a straight line.
#2 NORMAL DISTRIBUTION PDF
A Normal Distribution PDFs part of Probability distribution frequency results when there is a systematical range or variation in the probabilities of each outcome. Visually, the data is distributed systematically in the shape of a bell with a single peak, resulting in the common term “Bell Curve”.
The peak represents the mean, the symmetry indicates that there is an equal number of occurrences above and below the mean.
#3 TRIANGULAR PDF
A Triangular Distribution PDF results when there is an asymmetrical distribution of probabilities visually, the data is skewed to one side, indicating that an activity or element presents relatively little risk to project objectives. If either the probability of occurrence is low or the impact is low, then this necessarily indicates that there is a little risk.
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