How to use 3 Point Estimating Technique in Project Management

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Three Point Estimating is a method of activity duration estimate in which three types of estimates are incorporated into a single duration estimate. These are Optimistic, most likely and Pessimistic estimates.

 

optimistic estimate
When we are talking about Optimistic estimate in Three Points estimating, it is the best case estimate of the time it will take to complete a particular task. Let’s say for example, it will take five days to clear a plot of land. We can say it will take twelve days to clear two plot of land, all things being equal. That is an optimistic estimate.


pessimistic estimate
When talking about Pessimistic Estimate under Three Point Estimating, Pessimistic Estimate is the worst case estimate for a particular project. This is the time that it will take to complete a task even if an unplanned event occurs while trying to execute a particular task. Two week of completion can later become three weeks or four weeks if we are unable to raise fund to pay the labourers for the project.

estimating technique
most likely
The most likely time is the time it will require to complete a particular task under normal condition. The Most likely time shows the time that we are sure that the work will be completed without any delay to the project schedule.

The formula….

[Optimistic time + 4{most likely time} + Pessimistic time/ 6


Example….

Optimistic time-5 days
Most likely time-7 days
Pessimistic time-10 days

5+4{7)+10/6

=5+28+10/6
=43/6
=7.2
=7 days (Approximately).



Answer this:

Optimistic time- 8 Days
Most likely- 10 days
Pessimistic– 14 days



Note:
Leave your answer in the comment box.



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Salau Adeniyi Olayinka (CEP, MCTP,CSCU) is an accomplished Digital Marketer and E-Business Consultant . His passion is writing and sharing of knowledge and meeting people. He intends to use this blog to boost ICT and E-Business Knowledge in Nigeria and beyond.
He is currently the Digital Marketing & I.T Executive for New Creations Properties Limited , a Real Estate Firm in Ogun State, Nigeria as well as the CEO of Fourth Mouse Consulting , a Digital Marketing firm in Nigeria.

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